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Sports betting experts often make their picks by betting against a certain team, instead of necessarily betting for the team they think is going to win. In other words, sometimes when you know a team is terrible, you can make money sports betting just by betting against the terrible team.
Here’s a perfect example. Take a look at my analysis of the Southern Miss vs. Memphis NCAA college football game:
Southern Miss -7 at Memphis
This game matches up Southern Miss, 4-4 SU, against a very bad Memphis team that’s gone 1-7 this season, with their only win coming against an equally bad Chattanooga team way back in week 2. That puts Memphis in the middle of a 6 game losing streak, while Southern Miss isn’t doing much better, losing 3 of their last four.
But here’s the key to this game. Southern Miss simply can’t move the ball when they’re over-matched. In their 4 losses they’ve scored only 7,6,6, and 17 points. However, when they’re playing teams they can push around, they have the offense to put points on the board. In their 4 wins, Southern Miss has scored 45, 37, 31, and 19 points.
Meanwhile, Memphis has given up over 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games, and 26 in their game against Arkansas St. This tells me that Southern Miss is likely to put up a lot of points tonight.
Look for Southern Miss to simply over-power Memphis and put up a lot of points tonight, while holding Memphis’ offense to under 20 points. Bottom line is that I would expect Southern Miss to win this win going away, 31-17, easily covering the 7 point line.
So what was the final score? Southern Miss won 42-21, easily beating the 7 point spread.
How much money do you think ufabet pros made on this game simply by recognizing how bad a team Memphis was?
There’s often no need to try to figure out who’s going to win the close match-ups. People who aren’t good at sports betting often get suckered into trying to figure out who’s going to win tight games, like the Super Bowl.
When you bet on a game where you know one team is terrible, you already know that the better team is going to win -it’s just by a matter of how much they’ll win by.